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As we approach the All-Star break, it’s time to look at some trends bettors can get ahead of for the second half of the season. One of those trends is offenses that started out hot but showed signs of slowing down in the next couple of months. I break down two of those teams: The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres. 

The ball has been absolutely flying out of Busch Stadium this year, and at what point do we think the sample is big enough to mean something? I think that point is now. 

A stadium does not go from 29th in home run park factors in 2021 to third in one season without a dramatic change somewhere. The dimensions have not changed there at all, though. So something else, beyond variance, has to be the cause here. Busch Stadium was bottom six in HR park factors in both 2018 and 2019 and was below average in the shortened 2020 season, too. 

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Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
USA TODAY Sports

Paul Goldschmidt is off to a scorching start in his home ballpark, but even he has seemed to benefit from the warmer months. Almost all of his home runs at home have come in the past month when temperatures and dew points have considerably risen. 

Whatever your preseason run environment expectation was in St. Louis, it’s wrong and time to be adjusted upward in a big way. The market clearly hasn’t done so to this point in the year. 

While St. Louis’ offense is clearly benefiting from its now-hitter-friendly home park, there are still some troubling signs for this group as a whole long term. When you compare weighted on-base average (wOBA)-expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) across the entire league to see which offenses are most over-performing their underlying numbers, St. Louis ranks second luckiest in the league. The Cardinals put a ton of balls in play, but with one of the lower hard-hit rates in the league, they won’t be able to sustain their current level of run production. 


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The difference between their xBA and actual batting average is also the second most fortunate in the league. The same is true for the xSLG numbers. The Cardinals rank fifth-best in runs per game in the whole sport, but the offense is just 23rd in barrel rate and 26th in hard-hit rate. 

I’d expect some regression, and once Goldschmidt cools off, the Cardinals are still pretty reliant on rookies Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman to produce in high spots in the lineup. St. Louis should continue to be effective vs. lefties, but I’ll be looking to fade them against better righties in the coming months. 

In San Diego, Manny Machado’s injury leaves a gaping hole in the middle of a struggling Padres lineup. San Diego was already over-performing at an unsustainable rate — second in clutch hitting, third luckiest offense based on wOBA-xwOBA — and now the Padres will not have their MVP-caliber hitter. 

Manny Machado
Manny Machado’s injury leaves a hole in the Padres’ lineup.
Getty Images

Until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the lineup — and who knows when that will be — I’m going to continue to look to play against the Padres. The offense is seventh in runs scored per game despite being 24th in xwOBA, 28th in barrels, and 23rd in hard-hit rate. 

Either those numbers will have to improve, or San Diego’s offense is going to regress, and its run production will decline considerably. 


By: Ny Post

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Kourtney Kardashian uses Kopari Coconut Melt to ‘look good naked’

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Page Six may be compensated and/or receive an affiliate commission if you buy through our links.

Kourtney Kardashian’s no stranger to showing skin.

Whether the reality star’s modeling lingerie, baring it all in a bikini or packing on PDA with husband Travis Barker, she’s clearly confident about her body — and relies on a selection of tried-and-true products to keep her skin in tip-top shape.

In one of her first-ever Poosh stories, fittingly titled “How to Look Good Naked,” the 43-year-old outlines some of her body care essentials, including La Mer The Body Crème ($300), Dr. Barbara Sturm Anti-Aging Body Cream ($95) and Le Labo’s Pin 12 Candle ($82) — the latter because “lighting is everything.”

But not everything on Kardashian’s list will bust your budget. She also swears by Kopari Organic Coconut Melt, which will set you back just $29 for a full-sized jar or $18 for a mini version.

“In order to achieve glowy skin, it’s important to moisturize everything — everywhere — at least once a day,” the Poosh piece reads. “Don’t forget to care for your hands and feet as well; we recommend focusing on these areas at night.”

Billed as “a deep conditioner for your bod,” the product is comprised of 100% organic, unrefined coconut oil, and Kopari suggests applying it “as soon as you step out of the shower and at the end of the day.”

What’s more, the multitasking product also works well as a hair mask, dry shave oil, bath mix-in and belly balm, per the brand.

Snag a tub for yourself below — and get ready to look fabulous in your birthday suit, too.

Kopari Organic Coconut melt
Kopari


By: Ny Post

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Carlos Carrasco’s gem, three homers propel Mets past Marlins

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MIAMI — He’s one tough Cookie these days.

Carlos Carrasco isn’t going to win any contests blowing away hitters, but the right-hander’s offspeed pitches and command — and most importantly, his health — have converged this season to give the Mets an invaluable rotation piece.

On Saturday, he gave his team 7 ²/₃ shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Marlins at loanDepot park. Carrasco extended his scoreless streak over his past three starts to 18 ²/₃ innings.

The win was No. 100 in Carrasco’s career, making the 35-year-old the eighth Venezuelan-born pitcher to reach the milestone. Carrasco last surrendered a run on July 9 against the Marlins at Citi Field.

The Mets (63-37) won their fifth straight and reached the 100-game mark with the franchise’s most victories since 1986.

Overall, Carrasco allowed four hits and struck out seven with two walks. Seth Lugo replaced Carrasco in the eighth inning after Charles Leblanc had doubled with two outs. But Leblanc was picked off second base by Tomas Nido, ensuring Carrasco’s scoreless streak continued.

Carlos Carrasco didn't allow a run in the Mets' 4-0 win over the Marlins.
Carlos Carrasco didn’t allow a run in the Mets’ 4-0 win over the Marlins.
AP

Lugo remained in the game to pitch a scoreless ninth inning, allowing Edwin Diaz a day off following a 10-pitch outing Friday in which he struck out the side.

The Mets will try for a three-game sweep of the reeling Marlins on Sunday with Taijuan Walker on the mound.

After scuffling at the plate for seven innings, the Mets gave Carrasco breathing room in the eighth when Francisco Lindor and J.D. Davis each blasted a solo homer to give the Mets a 4-0 lead. Davis’ homer, in a pinch-hitting appearance, came as the Mets are searching on the trade market for a right-handed bat to solidify the DH spot.

The Mets have traded for two lefty bats in the last week-plus to bolster the other half of the DH equation. One of those additions, Tyler Naquin, debuted for the Mets on Saturday in left field and went 0-for-4. Daniel Vogelbach started at DH and drew a walk in four plate appearances.

Carrasco’s gem was the latest strong performance by a Mets starting pitcher. Entering play, the Mets had a 2.45 ERA from the starting rotation in July, which ranked second in the major leagues. Chris Bassitt had a rare flat start for the Mets a night earlier, when he allowed four earned runs over six innings.

Jeff McNeil hit a solo homer in the third against rookie Nick Neidert to give the Mets their first run. The homer was the first since June 14 for McNeil, who entered the day with a .162/.240/.191 slash line in July.

The Mets weren’t finished in the inning: Nido, Brandon Nimmo and Lindor all singled. Lindor’s hit extended the Mets’ lead to 2-0 and gave the shortstop 68 RBIs for the season before he reached 69 with his blast later.

Carrasco was challenged in the first inning, when he allowed a single to Miguel Rojas and walk to Jesus Aguilar before retiring JJ Bleday for the final out. In the fourth, Carrasco surrendered a leadoff single, but he escaped the inning when he got Bleday to ground into a double-play.


By: Ny Post

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Career NYC criminal tries to steal moped from NYPD station

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A brazen career criminal with more than 50 arrests on his rap sheet, including rape, was busted for trying to steal a moped from outside a lower Manhattan police station.

Jon Matos was caught red-handed approaching the $1,200 bike outside the 5th Precinct, sources said.

He was allegedly using a set of burglary tools Friday to try to bust the lock of the bike, which was vouchered property, cops and sources said.

Matos, a homeless father of three, was arraigned in Manhattan Criminal Court on charges of attempted grand larceny and possession of burglary tools.

The proceeding was delayed for hours, sources said, after Matos allegedly became angry with a cellmate who used the facilities — but didn’t courtesy flush.

“I was just f–king with it. It’s not my tools,” he allegedly told an NYPD detective, said Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Megan Mers during the court proceeding.

Judge Valentina Morales Saturday agreed to give Matos supervised release in the moped case.

“Thank you, your honor,” Matos told Morales.

But instead of hitting the streets once again, Matos was held on outstanding charges from the 23rd Precinct in an unrelated case, authorities said.

It was his second appearance before a judge in a week: Matos was in court days earlier, charged with grand larceny, petit larceny, and criminal possession of stolen property and was released in yet another incident.

Matos has racked up dozens of busts for burglary, robbery, fare evasion — including the 1999 rape of a 14-year-old girl.

Crime is up in six of the seven major crimes measured by the department contributed to the increase — though the seventh category, murders, dropped a noticeable 31.6% last month in comparison to numbers compiled in June 2021, according to the NYPD’s preliminary statistics.

Grand larceny spiked 41%, robbery rose 36.1% and burglary went up 33.8%.

When addressing the crime spike last month, NYPD Commissioner Keechant Sewell said the department was arresting the same people for crimes “over and over again.”

Other recent and brazen repeat offenders include veteran shoplifter Isaac “Man of Steal” Rodriguez, who was finally locked up in January after dozens of arrests for stealing to support his drug habit.

Laron Mack, whose catchphrase is “I steal for a living,” has been arrested more than 50 times. Another serial stealer, James Connelly, was busted in December for involvement in 28 separate incidents over three months.

Last month, accused serial shoplifter Lorenzo McLucas, 34, was nabbed for stealing from the cosmetics counter at a Duane Reade on Lexington Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, according to cops and court documents.

McLucas, who was released on his own recognizance, has notched 122 prior arrests.


By: Ny Post

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